Extended kalman filter for estimation of parameters in nonlinear state-space models of biochemical networks.

It is system dynamics that determines the function of cells, tissues and organisms. To develop mathematical models and estimate their parameters are an essential issue for studying dynamic behaviors of biological systems which include metabolic networks, genetic regulatory networks and signal transduction pathways, under perturbation of external stimuli. In general, biological dynamic systems are partially observed. Therefore, a natural way to model dynamic biological systems is to employ nonlinear state-space equations. Although statistical methods for parameter estimation of linear models in biological dynamic systems have been developed intensively in the recent years, the estimation of both states and parameters of nonlinear dynamic systems remains a challenging task. In this report, we apply extended Kalman Filter (EKF) to the estimation of both states and parameters of nonlinear state-space models. To evaluate the performance of the EKF for parameter estimation, we apply the EKF to a simulation dataset and two real datasets: JAK-STAT signal transduction pathway and Ras/Raf/MEK/ERK signaling transduction pathways datasets. The preliminary results show that EKF can accurately estimate the parameters and predict states in nonlinear state-space equations for modeling dynamic biochemical networks.

Improving the accuracy of radiation pneumonitis dose response models

The prognosis for lung cancer patients remains poor. Five year survival rates have been reported to be 15%. Studies have shown that dose escalation to the tumor can lead to better local control and subsequently better overall survival. However, dose to lung tumor is limited by normal tissue toxicity. The most prevalent thoracic toxicity is radiation pneumonitis. In order to determine a safe dose that can be delivered to the healthy lung, researchers have turned to mathematical models predicting the rate of radiation pneumonitis. However, these models rely on simple metrics based on the dose-volume histogram and are not yet accurate enough to be used for dose escalation trials. The purpose of this work was to improve the fit of predictive risk models for radiation pneumonitis and to show the dosimetric benefit of using the models to guide patient treatment planning. The study was divided into 3 specific aims. The first two specifics aims were focused on improving the fit of the predictive model. In Specific Aim 1 we incorporated information about the spatial location of the lung dose distribution into a predictive model. In Specific Aim 2 we incorporated ventilation-based functional information into a predictive pneumonitis model. In the third specific aim a proof of principle virtual simulation was performed where a model-determined limit was used to scale the prescription dose. The data showed that for our patient cohort, the fit of the model to the data was not improved by incorporating spatial information. Although we were not able to achieve a significant improvement in model fit using pre-treatment ventilation, we show some promising results indicating that ventilation imaging can provide useful information about lung function in lung cancer patients. The virtual simulation trial demonstrated that using a personalized lung dose limit derived from a predictive model will result in a different prescription than what was achieved with the clinically used plan; thus demonstrating the utility of a normal tissue toxicity model in personalizing the prescription dose.

Quality assurance plan for a vaccine preventable diseases surveillance program

Public health surveillance programs for vaccine preventable diseases (VPD) need functional quality assurance (QA) in order to operate with high quality activities to prevent preventable communicable diseases from spreading in the community. Having a functional QA plan can assure the performance and quality of a program without putting excessive stress on the resources. A functional QA plan acts as a check on the quality of day-to-day activities performed by the VPD surveillance program while also providing data that would be useful for evaluating the program. This study developed a QA plan that involves collection, collation, analysis and reporting of information based on standardized (predetermined) formats and indicators as an integral part of routine work for the vaccine preventable disease surveillance program at the City of Houston Department of Health and Human Services. The QA plan also provides sampling and analysis plans for assessing various QA indicators, as well as recommendations to the Houston Department of Health and Humans Services for implementation of the QA plan. The QA plan developed for VPD surveillance in the City of Houston is intended to be a low cost system that could serve as a template for QA plans as part of other public health programs not only in the city or the nation, but could be adapted for use anywhere across the globe. Having a QA plan for VPD surveillance in the City of Houston would serve well for the funding agencies like the CDC by assuring that the resources are being expended efficiently, while achieving the real goal of positively impacting the health and lives of the recipient/target population. ^